In the Age of the Polycrisis: How complex crises emerge and how we can confront them
The 21st century is marked by a multitude of crisis situations that can be described as a system of parallel, overlapping and connected crises on a global scale. These polycrises can potentially lead to the failure of political and societal systems. So far, the concept of polycrisis is an understudied phenomenon. This interdisciplinary project therefore aims to explore the interplay of complex crises and the reduction of their complexity. Although a reduction of complexity in these crisis situations is necessary, it can also lead to a failure of crisis communication or a polarization of societal discourses.
To date, there has been no theory-based conceptual examination of the term polycrisis in the social sciences. The application to empirical observations to date has not been sufficiently theorized and it therefore remains analytically nebulous as to how a polycrisis can be identified and which individual crises form a complex system of systemic risks and in what form. We therefore see the social science conceptualization of polycrises as a way of reducing complexity. Furthermore, there have so far been hardly any empirical analyses of the course, management and consequences of polycrises for societies and states. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that the scientific community has not yet reached a consensus on an adequate conceptualization of polycrises. On the other hand, the few empirical studies have shown that analyzing polycrises and reducing their complexity is methodologically challenging.
The research project aims to conceptualize the emergence, development and course of polycrises, as well as to examine their impact on social and political discourses and thus on crisis management in order to provide insights into how these new types of crises can be countered. To this end, we would like to answer two questions in this research project:
- How can the dynamics (emergence, development, progression) of polycrises be more effectively described and conceptualized?
- How do global polycrises affect social and political discourses with regard to crisis management and their complexity reduction?
In order to approach the topic of polycrises and their effects, theoretical approaches and research methods from international relations and American studies will be combined, including, for example, complexity theory, the theory of ontological security and methods from corpus-based discourse analysis.
The first step in the work programme of this research project is to develop theoretical assumptions based on the literature on international relations, polycentrism, sociology and complexity studies that address the question of how polycentric crises can be conceptualized and what possible effects different polycrises can have on nation states and their societies. Although IB research has dealt extensively with the concept of crisis, the discipline has so far lacked a systematic understanding of what "polycrisis" means and encompasses. Against this background, this research project integrates approaches to concept formation in a first step in order to develop a thorough conceptualization of polycrisis. This should help to understand the widespread uncertainty and complexity that have become characteristic features of contemporary international politics.
In a second step, we then use the developed concept of polycrisis and, on the basis of a mixed-methods approach, specifically examine the extent to which social and political discourse formations are formed in the context of global polycrises. The first case deals with the polycrisis of global climate change and natural disasters as well as social, societal and political factors that negatively promote their effects. The second case examines the polycrisis of the Ukraine war and the associated economic, food supply and energy crises. Due to their complexity and multi-layered nature, both cases represent ideal types of polycrisis, but potentially vary in terms of their diffusion and non-linearity.
Polycrises are often perceived differently within societies due to their diffuse complexity, leading to disagreement as to whether a crisis situation exists at all, who or what caused the crisis and how it can be overcome. Due to their complexity and seemingly never-ending uncertainty, polycrises have the potential to polarize crisis discourses, which in turn can influence crisis management. Through the methodological approach of quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, the project aims to approach the concept of polycrisis and thereby provide insights into state action in these crisis situations and the perception thereof. As a global superpower, the USA continues to play a decisive role here. However, the project also aims to draw comparisons with other political systems, such as Germany. Here, we are interested in the role that discourse patterns and actors play in the perception and addressing of complex crises and whether these contribute to the effective management of polycrises (complexity reduction). Due to their particular complexity, polycrises convey a high degree of uncertainty regarding the expected material and immaterial costs for society and the state. Consequently, governments, societies and individuals strive to reduce the enormous complexity of today's polycrises in order to legitimize social mediation and acceptance of crisis management in the first place.
The WIN-Kolleg offers attractive conditions for interdisciplinary collaboration and networking for our research project. When looking at perception and communication in crisis situations, the project can benefit from collaboration with other disciplines, for example on the question of how crisis communication unfolds not only at a national and societal level, but also how it is processed by people at an individual, mental level. In this way, the social effects of polycrises can be considered holistically and individual crisis vulnerability and resilience can also be examined.